Weekend Stream Classifier

🏒❄️ Distinguish desperation streams from genuine opportunities

The weekend stream classifier is one of ICE's most tactical tools - designed to help you make smart waiver decisions during critical weekend windows. It uses a binary decision tree and quantified upside scoring to separate legitimate pickups from panic moves.

Overview

Tool Name: analyze_weekend_streams

Chirp Style: desperate_or_legit

Time Horizon: 3-7 days (weekend tactical decisions)

What It Does

Analyzes free agents during weekend periods and classifies them into three categories:

1. 🔥 Genuine Opportunities - Sustainable roles, >2 week hold value, independent catalysts
2. ⚠️ Monitor Territory - Hot hands with risky matchups, 50/50 plays
3. 🆘 Desperation Streams - Bye-week fillers, injury covers, <1 week value

The Problem It Solves

Not all weekend streams are created equal. Some are strategic adds with season-long value. Others are panic moves that fill a roster hole but don't improve your team. This tool helps you:

• Avoid desperation moves driven by byes/injuries
• Identify genuine breakouts hidden in the weekend waiver wire
• Make data-driven decisions using quantified upside scores (0-100)
• Optimize limited moves by focusing on high-value adds

Binary Classification Logic

DESPERATION if:
  ✗ Context-driven (bye/injury fill)
  ✗ Low floor (<0.4 FP/G projected)
  ✗ No role lock (TOI <12 min)

GENUINE if:
  ✓ Independent catalysts (PP1, line promotion)
  ✓ High ceiling (>0.6 FP/G projected)
  ✓ Sustainable (>14 day hold duration)

MONITOR if:
  ~ 50/50 territory
  ~ Hot hand but tough matchup
  ~ Role uncertainty

Upside Score Formula

Score = (0.30 × Proj FP/G × 10) + (0.30 × Opp TOI) + (0.20 × Schedule Ease) - (0.20 × Risk %)

Score Thresholds

• >60 = Genuine opportunity
• 40-60 = Monitor territory
• <40 = Desperation stream

Scoring Factors

Factor	Weight	What It Measures
Projected FP/G	30%	Expected fantasy points per game (next 7 days)
Opportunity TOI	30%	Time on ice, PP role, line position
Schedule Ease	20%	Weekend games, opponent strength, matchup quality
Risk %	-20%	Injury status, role volatility, back-to-back fatigue

Seven Intelligence Layers

1. Schedule Analysis - Weekend games, back-to-backs, opponent matchups
2. Context Synthesis - Team byes, injuries, roster gaps
3. Metrics Evaluation - Recent PPG, projected FP/G, TOI trends
4. Risk Assessment - Injury probability, role volatility, matchup difficulty
5. Binary Classification - Desperation vs Genuine vs Monitor
6. Fit Optimization - Match to roster gaps, suggest drops
7. Confidence Scoring - 0-100 upside score with thresholds

Usage

Basic Example

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-11",
    "end": "2025-10-13"
  }
}

With Position Filter

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-11",
    "end": "2025-10-13"
  },
  "position_filter": ["C", "RW"],
  "ownership_max": 40
}

With Team Needs

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-11",
    "end": "2025-10-13"
  },
  "team_needs": ["bye_fill", "C_depth"],
  "min_upside_score": 50
}

With Chirp Controls

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-11",
    "end": "2025-10-13"
  },
  "chirp_intensity": "ice_cold",
  "personality_mode": "roast_master",
  "max_results": 5
}

Parameters

Required

Parameter	Type	Description
date_range	Object	Weekend dates to analyze
date_range.start	String	Start date (YYYY-MM-DD, e.g., "2025-10-11")
date_range.end	String	End date (YYYY-MM-DD, e.g., "2025-10-13")

Optional

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
position_filter	Array	All	Filter by positions: ["C", "LW", "RW", "D", "G"]
ownership_max	Number	50	Maximum ownership % (players above excluded)
team_needs	Array	None	Your needs: ["bye_fill", "injury_cover", "G_volume"]
min_upside_score	Number	0	Minimum upside score to include (0-100)
max_results	Number	10	Maximum results per classification
chirp_intensity	String	ice_cold	Chirp intensity: gentle, standard, savage, ice_cold
personality_mode	String	analytical	Chirp personality style
enable_chirp	Boolean	true	Enable/disable chirp intelligence

Example Queries

"Analyze this weekend's streaming options"

Analyze weekend streams for Oct 11-13, 2025.
I need forwards to cover CAR bye week.
Classify desperation vs genuine opportunities.

The tool will:

1. Identify free agents with weekend games
2. Detect your CAR bye week gap
3. Score each player (0-100 upside)
4. Classify as Genuine/Monitor/Desperation
5. Suggest drop candidates for genuine adds

"Find genuine opportunities only"

Analyze weekend streams Oct 11-13.
Only show me genuine opportunities with upside score >60.
I want sustainable adds, not desperation fills.

"Weekend goalies"

Analyze weekend goalie streams Oct 11-13.
Filter to G position only.
Show me who has back-to-backs vs genuine starter opportunities.

Response Structure

{
  "analysis_insights": {
    "streaming_targets": [...],
    "market_intelligence": {...}
  },
  "recommendations": [
    {
      "priority": "HIGH",
      "action": "pickup",
      "player": {
        "name": "Morgan Frost",
        "team": "PHI",
        "position": "C",
        "classification": "genuine",
        "upside_score": 72,
        "weekend_games": 3,
        "schedule_ease": 85,
        "matchup_quality": "favorable",
        "catalyst": "PP1 role lock - power play opportunity",
        "hold_duration": ">2 weeks",
        "fit_reason": "Fills C need"
      },
      "reasoning": "Genuine: Fills C need (Score: 72)"
    }
  ],
  "chirp_intelligence": {
    "analysis_chirp": "🔥 Found 3 genuine opportunities...",
    "ice_cold_truth": "These aren't streams, they're season savers..."
  },
  "metadata": {
    "classification_breakdown": {
      "genuine_count": 3,
      "desperation_count": 12,
      "monitor_count": 5
    },
    "weekend_summary": {
      "total_weekend_games": 45,
      "avg_games_per_player": 2.1,
      "back_to_back_situations": 8
    }
  }
}

Classification Examples

Genuine Opportunity

Player: Morgan Frost (PHI, C)
Classification: GENUINE
Upside Score: 72

Why Genuine:
✓ PP1 role lock (independent catalyst)
✓ 3 weekend games (volume opportunity)
✓ Projected 0.8 FP/G (high ceiling)
✓ 18 min TOI (role security)
✓ Not driven by user's byes/injuries

Hold Duration: >2 weeks
Chirp: "PP1 lock? Now we're talking genuine upside 🔥"

Desperation Stream

Player: Jujhar Khaira (VAN, C)
Classification: DESPERATION
Upside Score: 28

Why Desperation:
✗ Filling CAR bye week gap (context-driven)
✗ Bottom-6 role, 9 min TOI (no role lock)
✗ Projected 0.2 FP/G (low floor)
✗ Back-to-back fatigue risk

Hold Duration: <1 week
Chirp: "That's not a stream, that's a cry for help 🆘"

Monitor Territory

Player: Pavel Zacha (BOS, C)
Classification: MONITOR
Upside Score: 52

Why Monitor:
~ Hot streak (5 points in 3 games)
~ Tough matchup vs COL, FLA (risky)
~ Role on top line, but inconsistent
~ 50/50 territory

Hold Duration: 1-2 weeks
Chirp: "Hot hand but tough matchup - tread carefully ⚠️"

Chirp Style: desperate_or_legit

The weekend stream classifier uses a unique chirp style that:

• Calls out desperation when you're making panic bye-week moves
• Celebrates genuine opportunities with PP1 locks and sustainable roles
• Warns about monitor territory for 50/50 hot hands with risky matchups

Sample Chirps

Desperation Detected:

"🆘 That's not a waiver wire, that's a cry for help. Pure desperation plays everywhere."

Genuine Opportunities Found:

"🔥 Found 3 genuine opportunities. PP1 locks, top-6 roles, sustainable upside. This is how you dominate."

Multiple Roster Gaps:

"⚠️ Multiple roster gaps detected. You're in triage mode - prioritize high-floor plays."

Mixed Bag:

"📊 Mixed bag this weekend. Some genuine plays, some desperation. Choose wisely."

When to Use This Tool

✅ Perfect For

• Friday/Saturday waiver decisions - Weekend streaming windows
• Bye week planning - Distinguish filling gaps vs genuine adds
• Injury coverage - Avoid desperation, find opportunity
• Limited roster moves - Maximize each pickup's value
• Short-term tactical decisions - 3-7 day holds

❌ Not Ideal For

• Season-long breakouts - Use analyze_breakout_players instead
• Mid-week streaming - Designed for weekend windows
• Keeper/dynasty decisions - Too short-term focused
• Playoff stashing - Not designed for long-term holds

Comparison: Weekend Streams vs Breakout Analysis

Feature	Weekend Streams	Breakout Analysis
Time Horizon	3-7 days	Multi-week to season
Classification	Desperation/Genuine/Monitor	Must-add/Strong/Monitor/Sleeper
Focus	Tactical weekend decisions	Strategic season-long adds
Upside Formula	Schedule + Context heavy	Performance + Projections heavy
Context Awareness	Byes, injuries, roster gaps	Age, trending, opportunity
Best For	Weekend waivers, bye fills	Free agent pickups, breakouts

Tips for Maximum Value

1. Run on Fridays - Get ahead of Saturday waivers
2. Specify team_needs - Helps classification accuracy
3. Set min_upside_score - Filter noise, focus on quality
4. Check hold_duration - Genuine = >2 weeks, Desperation = <1 week
5. Trust the scores - >60 = genuine, <40 = desperation
6. Act fast on genuine plays - Other managers catch on quickly
7. Avoid back-to-backs for goalies - Usually desperation plays
8. PP1 locks are golden - Independent catalyst = genuine
9. Context-driven = caution - If only reason is your bye, it's desperation
10. Monitor != skip - 50/50 plays can pay off with good matchups

Advanced Strategies

Weekend-Only Holds

Set strict criteria to find pure weekend streams:

• "min_upside_score": 35
• "team_needs": ["bye_fill"]
• Target players with 2-3 weekend games

Genuine Opportunity Hunting

Find sustainable adds hidden in weekend waivers:

• "min_upside_score": 60
• "position_filter": ["C", "RW"] (highest opportunity)
• Look for "PP1 role lock" catalyst

Bye Week Triage

When multiple roster gaps exist:

• Specify all team_needs
• Lower min_upside_score to 30
• Prioritize high-floor (low risk%) over ceiling
• Accept some desperation to fill gaps

Goalie Streaming

Specialized goalie strategy:

• "position_filter": ["G"]
• "ownership_max": 30
• Avoid back-to-backs (risk penalty)
• Focus on matchup_quality = "elite" or "favorable"

Troubleshooting

"Too many desperation streams, not enough genuine"

This is normal! Most weekend waivers are desperation. Strategies:

1. Lower min_upside_score to see more options
2. Increase ownership_max to 60-70%
3. Run analysis earlier in week (more time = more options)
4. Accept monitor territory (scores 40-60) as acceptable

"All players show context_driven = true"

This means you have significant roster gaps (byes/injuries). The tool is correctly identifying that your streaming is driven by necessity. Focus on:

• Highest upside scores within desperation category
• Lowest risk percentages
• Best matchup_quality

"Upside scores seem low overall"

Weekend waiver pools are typically lower quality than full free agent pools. Compare relatively:

• Top desperation (score 35-40) vs bottom desperation (score 15-20)
• Use classification more than absolute scores
• Remember: 40+ is monitor territory, anything viable

"Classification disagrees with my gut"

The tool is conservative and data-driven. Common reasons:

• Player name recognition - Famous player ≠ current opportunity
• Recent hot streak - Already priced into projections
• Your roster needs - Tool flags context-driven accurately
• Trust the process: genuine opportunities have independent catalysts

Next Steps

After running weekend stream analysis:

1. Act on HIGH priority genuines - Immediate pickups
2. Watch MEDIUM monitor targets - Check game results
3. Avoid desperation unless necessary - Only if filling critical gap
4. Run analyze_breakout_players - Find multi-week adds
5. Use ice for comprehensive - Full roster optimization

Related Tools

• analyze_breakout_players - Season-long free agent analysis
• get_streaming_recommendations - Full-week streaming strategy
• get_games_in_hand - Schedule advantage analysis
• ice - Comprehensive roster optimization with all insights

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"That's not a stream, that's a cry for help." - ICE, when detecting pure desperation

🏒❄️ When you call this tool, you're not guessing. You're activating the cormorant's tactical weekend intelligence.