Injury Impact Analysis

🏥 Next Man Up - Identify beneficiaries when star players go down

The Injury Impact Analysis tool helps you react faster than your league when injuries hit. It analyzes the ripple effects of injuries, identifies beneficiaries who gain ice time and opportunity, and provides actionable add/drop recommendations.

Overview

Tool Name: analyze_injury_impact

Chirp Style: next_man_up

Time Horizon: Injury timeline dependent (DTD to season-long)

What It Does

When a key player gets injured, this tool:

1. Maps the Ripple Effect - Traces how ice time and power play opportunities shift
2. Scores Beneficiaries - Quantifies upside (0-100) for each player gaining opportunity
3. Classifies Urgency - Immediate adds vs Monitor vs Overreaction
4. Recommends Actions - Specific add/drop/trade suggestions tied to your roster

The Problem It Solves

Injuries happen fast. By the time you notice a star is out, the best waiver pickups are often gone. This tool helps you:

• React immediately when injuries break
• Identify true beneficiaries vs hype trains
• Avoid overreactions to day-to-day injuries
• Prioritize adds based on injury timeline
• Exploit opportunities before your league catches on

Classification System

IMMEDIATE (Add Now):
  ✓ Clear TOI/PP beneficiary
  ✓ Injury duration: 2+ weeks
  ✓ No competition for role
  ✓ Beneficiary Score >70

MONITOR (Watch Closely):
  ~ Shared opportunity (multiple callups)
  ~ Injury timeline unclear
  ~ Competition for role
  ~ Beneficiary Score 50-70

OVERREACTION (Avoid):
  ✗ Day-to-day injury
  ✗ Multiple competitors for minutes
  ✗ Minimal TOI gain expected
  ✗ Beneficiary Score <50

Beneficiary Scoring Formula

Score = (0.35 × Opportunity Gain) + (0.30 × Projected Impact) + (0.20 × Role Sustainability) - (0.15 × Risk/Competition)

Scoring Factors

Factor	Weight	What It Measures
Opportunity Gain	35%	TOI increase, PP promotion, top-line placement
Projected Impact	30%	Expected FP/G boost from new role
Role Sustainability	20%	How long they'll keep the role (injury timeline)
Risk/Competition	-15%	Other callups, competition for minutes, reinjury risk

Score Thresholds

• >70 = Immediate add (clear beneficiary)
• 50-70 = Monitor (uncertain or shared opportunity)
• <50 = Overreaction (minimal or temporary gain)

Injury Timeline Classifications

Day-to-Day (DTD)

• Action: Monitor only, don't overreact
• Beneficiaries: Usually overvalued
• Strategy: Wait for clarity before adding

1-2 Weeks

• Action: Short-term waiver streams
• Beneficiaries: Temporary adds for bye weeks
• Strategy: Use for immediate gaps, plan to drop

3-6 Weeks

• Action: Medium-term roster adds
• Beneficiaries: Legitimate opportunity window
• Strategy: Add if roster spot available

LTIR (7+ weeks / Season-ending)

• Action: Season-long opportunity
• Beneficiaries: Prioritize immediate adds
• Strategy: These can be league winners

Ripple Effect Analysis

Direct Impact

• Lost Production - Quantify what the injured player contributed
• Role Gaps - PP1, top-pair, first-line minutes now available
• Schedule Context - Upcoming games (soft/hard matchups)

Team Impact

• Depth Chart Shifts - Who moves up in the lineup?
• Power Play Restructuring - PP1/PP2 changes
• Line Combinations - New linemate opportunities

Broader Ripple

• Minor League Callups - AHL/prospect promotions
• Position Shuffles - D to wing, etc.
• Trade Market - Team needs, external adds

Usage

Basic Example - Auto-detect injuries

{
  "auto_scan": true
}

Scans your roster for injured players and analyzes impact.

Specific Player Analysis

{
  "injured_player": "Cale Makar",
  "injury_timeline": "Out 4-6 weeks (lower body)",
  "position_focus": ["D"]
}

With Context

{
  "injured_player": "Auston Matthews",
  "injury_timeline": "Out 2-3 weeks",
  "roster_needs": ["C", "RW"],
  "timeframe": "immediate"
}

Full Example

{
  "auto_scan": true,
  "timeframe": "immediate",
  "min_beneficiary_score": 60,
  "max_results": 5,
  "chirp_intensity": "ice_cold",
  "personality_mode": "roast_master"
}

Parameters

Optional

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
injured_player	String	Auto-detect	Injured player name (e.g., "Cale Makar")
injury_timeline	String	From Yahoo	"DTD" | "1-2 weeks" | "3-6 weeks" | "LTIR"
auto_scan	Boolean	false	Scan your roster for injuries automatically
position_focus	Array	All	Focus on specific positions: ["D", "G"]
timeframe	String	all	"immediate" (only show high-priority adds)
min_beneficiary_score	Number	0	Minimum score to include (0-100)
max_results	Number	10	Maximum beneficiaries per injury
chirp_intensity	String	ice_cold	Chirp intensity level
personality_mode	String	analytical	Chirp personality style
enable_chirp	Boolean	true	Enable/disable chirp intelligence

Example Queries

"Check my roster for injury impacts"

Scan my roster for injuries and show me who benefits.
Only show immediate adds with high beneficiary scores.

"Makar just got injured"

Cale Makar is out 4-6 weeks with a lower body injury.
Who are the immediate beneficiaries on Colorado?
Show me defense adds to replace him.

"Is this injury worth reacting to?"

Auston Matthews is day-to-day.
Should I add anyone or is this an overreaction?

Response Structure

{
  "analysis_insights": {
    "injuries_detected": [
      {
        "player": "Cale Makar",
        "team": "COL",
        "injury": "Lower body",
        "timeline": "Out 4-6 weeks",
        "impact": "Lost 0.8 FP/G, PP1 QB, top-pair minutes"
      }
    ],
    "total_beneficiaries": 6,
    "immediate_adds": 2
  },
  "recommendations": [
    {
      "priority": "CRITICAL",
      "action": "pickup",
      "player": {
        "name": "Bowen Byram",
        "team": "COL",
        "position": "D",
        "beneficiary_score": 82,
        "opportunity_gain": "+4 TOI, PP1 promotion",
        "role_sustainability": "Likely 4-6 weeks",
        "classification": "immediate",
        "injured_player": "Cale Makar",
        "injury_timeline": "Out 4-6 weeks",
        "competition": ["Devon Toews", "Josh Manson"],
        "projected_impact": "+0.5 FP/G"
      },
      "reasoning": "Clear PP1 beneficiary with top-pair promotion"
    }
  ],
  "chirp_intelligence": {
    "analysis_chirp": "🏥 PP1 just opened up - this is your moment to pounce...",
    "ice_cold_truth": "One man's injury is another man's breakout season..."
  },
  "metadata": {
    "ripple_analysis": {
      "total_opportunity_minutes": 18,
      "pp_roles_available": ["PP1 QB"],
      "callups_expected": 1
    }
  }
}

Classification Examples

Immediate Add

Beneficiary: Bowen Byram (COL, D)
Classification: IMMEDIATE
Beneficiary Score: 82

Opportunity Gain:
✓ +4 min TOI (18 → 22 minutes)
✓ PP1 promotion (Makar's QB role)
✓ Top-pair placement with Toews

Projected Impact: +0.5 FP/G
Role Sustainability: 4-6 weeks (Makar timeline)
Competition: Low (Toews stays paired, Manson bottom-pair)

Add Priority: CRITICAL
Chirp: "PP1 just opened up - this is your moment to pounce 🔥"

Monitor Territory

Beneficiary: Samuel Girard (COL, D)
Classification: MONITOR
Beneficiary Score: 58

Opportunity Gain:
~ +2 min TOI (14 → 16 minutes)
~ PP2 role (shared with Manson)
~ Second-pair minutes

Projected Impact: +0.2 FP/G
Role Sustainability: Unclear (competition with Manson)
Competition: Medium (Manson, potentially Byram on PP2)

Add Priority: MEDIUM
Chirp: "Shared opportunity - this isn't a solo act ⚠️"

Overreaction

Beneficiary: Jack Johnson (COL, D)
Classification: OVERREACTION
Beneficiary Score: 28

Opportunity Gain:
✗ +1 min TOI (12 → 13 minutes)
✗ No PP role
✗ Third-pair minutes

Projected Impact: +0.05 FP/G
Role Sustainability: Minimal (bottom-pair depth)
Competition: High (multiple better options)

Add Priority: LOW
Chirp: "That's not opportunity, that's wishful thinking 🆘"

Chirp Style: next_man_up

The injury impact analyzer uses a "next man up" mentality chirp style that:

• Celebrates clear opportunities when star roles open up
• Warns about overreactions to day-to-day or shared opportunities
• Emphasizes speed - first to the waiver wire wins
• Distinguishes hype from reality - data-driven beneficiary assessment

Sample Chirps

Immediate Opportunity:

"🔥 PP1 just opened up - this is your moment to pounce. That's 18 minutes of ice time up for grabs."

Clear Beneficiary:

"One man's injury is another man's breakout season. Add Byram before your league wakes up."

Overreaction Warning:

"🆘 Don't sleep on this - wait, actually DO sleep on this. It's day-to-day, not dynasty-altering."

Shared Opportunity:

"That's not opportunity, that's a timeshare with three other guys. Monitor, don't add."

Competition Alert:

"⚠️ Shared minutes alert: Four players competing for that role. Tread carefully."

When to Use This Tool

✅ Perfect For

• Breaking injury news - React within minutes
• Roster planning - When your players get injured
• Waiver strategy - Beat your league to beneficiaries
• Trade targeting - Identify players whose value will rise
• Depth research - Understand team hierarchies

❌ Not Ideal For

• Healthy lineup optimization - Use ice or optimize_lineup instead
• Season-long breakouts - Use analyze_breakout_players
• Weekend streaming - Use analyze_weekend_streams
• Trade value (no injury) - Use dedicated trade analyzer

Comparison: Injury Impact vs Other Tools

Feature	Injury Impact	Breakout Analysis	Weekend Streams
Trigger	Injury event	General FA scan	Weekend window
Time Horizon	Injury-dependent	Multi-week	3-7 days
Focus	Opportunity gain	Hidden gems	Desperation vs Genuine
Urgency	Immediate action	Strategic adds	Tactical fills
Best For	React to injuries	Long-term value	Bye weeks

Tips for Maximum Value

1. Set up injury alerts - React within hours, not days
2. Run auto_scan daily - Catch injuries you missed
3. Prioritize LTIR injuries - Season-long opportunities
4. Ignore DTD unless desperate - Usually overreactions
5. Check competition - Multiple callups = monitor, don't add
6. Use timeframe: immediate - Filter noise during busy weeks
7. PP1 promotions are gold - Highest scoring impact
8. Don't chase third-pair D - Minimal TOI gain
9. Young players > veterans - More upside in opportunity
10. Speed matters - First to waiver wire often wins

Advanced Strategies

Injury Stashing

When star gets injured for 3+ weeks:

• Add beneficiary immediately
• Also consider stashing injured star on IR
• Ride beneficiary until star returns
• Drop beneficiary, activate star

Trade Market Exploitation

When opponent's star gets injured:

• Identify their beneficiaries
• Offer trades for beneficiaries before they add
• "Help them" while getting value

Preemptive Monitoring

Track injury-prone players:

• Set up auto_scan to run daily
• Monitor DTD situations that might become longer
• Add beneficiaries speculatively before injury confirmed

Multi-Injury Cascades

When team has multiple injuries:

• Analyze combined opportunity (e.g., 2 D injured = massive beneficiary)
• Callups from AHL often undervalued
• Team might make trades (external beneficiaries)

Playoff-Timed Injuries

Injuries during fantasy playoffs:

• Immediate classification becomes critical
• No time to monitor - must act fast
• LTIR = season over, focus on beneficiaries only

Troubleshooting

"All beneficiaries showing as overreaction"

Likely causes:

• Injury is day-to-day (correct assessment!)
• Multiple competitors for role (shared opportunity)
• Injured player had limited role (minimal ripple)

Action: Trust the tool - avoid overreacting

"I don't see obvious beneficiaries listed"

Possible reasons:

• Beneficiaries already owned (check ownership %)
• Team goes with committee approach (multiple players share)
• External acquisition likely (team will trade for replacement)

Action: Run with lower min_beneficiary_score or check if you need to monitor external adds

"Beneficiary score seems low for obvious add"

Tool is conservative by design:

• Weights competition heavily
• Considers injury timeline uncertainty
• Factors in roster depth

Action: Use your judgment + tool data. Score 60+ is still solid.

"Auto-scan didn't detect my injured player"

Check if:

• Injury status updated in Yahoo (sometimes delayed)
• Player marked as "Out" vs "DTD"
• Running during off-hours (status updates lag)

Action: Use manual injured_player parameter for breaking news

Real-World Example

Scenario: Cale Makar Injured (Oct 11, 2025)

News Breaks: "Makar out 4-6 weeks, lower body injury"

Query:

Cale Makar is out 4-6 weeks.
Show me immediate defense adds for Colorado.

Tool Analysis:

Direct Impact:

• Lost: 0.8 FP/G, 24 min TOI, PP1 QB role
• Schedule: COL has 12 games next 3 weeks (strong opportunity)

Beneficiaries Identified:

1. Bowen Byram (Score: 82 - IMMEDIATE)

   • Opportunity: +4 TOI, PP1 promotion
   • Projected: +0.5 FP/G
   • Competition: Low
   • Action: Add immediately

2. Devon Toews (Score: 71 - IMMEDIATE)

   • Opportunity: +2 TOI, PP1 time increase
   • Projected: +0.3 FP/G
   • Competition: Low (already established)
   • Action: Add if available

3. Samuel Girard (Score: 58 - MONITOR)

   • Opportunity: +2 TOI, PP2 role
   • Projected: +0.2 FP/G
   • Competition: Medium
   • Action: Monitor, add if desperate

Chirp:

"🔥 PP1 QB role just opened up - Byram is your target. That's 24 minutes of ice time redistributed. Add before your league wakes up Monday morning."

Outcome:

• Manager adds Byram Saturday night
• League catches on Monday
• Byram already rostered, manager wins

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"One man's injury is another man's breakout season. React fast." - ICE, on injury opportunities

🏥 When you call this tool, you're not guessing. You're activating the cormorant's injury intelligence.