Team Buy-In Analysis

🏒 Stack Aggressively - Detect when the whole squad clicks

The Team Buy-In Analysis tool identifies early signs of team chemistry breakthroughs - when players collectively embrace a system, leading to cohesive play and fantasy stacking opportunities. Unlike individual player tools, this detects MULTIPLE adds simultaneously.

Overview

Tool Name: analyze_team_buyin

Chirp Style: whole_squad_clicking

Time Horizon: 2-3 weeks (system adoption phase)

What It Does

When a team "buys in" to their coach's system, magic happens:

1. Detects Team Chemistry - Identifies when cohesion clicks (not just hot streaks)
2. Scores Buy-In Level - Quantifies commitment (0-100 scale)
3. Recommends Line Stacks - Suggests multiple players to add together
4. Classifies Stage - Early/Emerging/Locked In
5. Provides Evidence - Metrics, stability, momentum data

The Problem It Solves

Individual player analysis misses the forest for the trees. When an entire team clicks:

• Line chemistry multiplies value - All three forwards produce
• PP units sync up - Multiple scorers benefit
• Goalie gets run support - Save % improves with better defense
• Depth players break out - System creates opportunities

This tool helps you:

• Stack entire lines before market realizes
• Exploit team-wide momentum shifts
• Identify coaching system impacts early
• Ride chemistry waves (2-3 week windows)
• Avoid dead zones (teams still searching)

Buy-In Definition

"Buy-In" means collective adoption: improved on-ice cohesion, reduced errors, and momentum from players embracing changes (e.g., post-coach hire, mid-season tweaks, young core maturing).

Not Just Hot Streaks

Hot Streak	True Buy-In
1-2 game winning	3+ game trend
Individual heroics	Balanced scoring
Variance spike	Sustainable metrics
Goalie carries	Team defense improves
Luck-driven	System-driven

Buy-In Scoring Formula

Score = (0.30 × Performance Trend) + (0.25 × Line Stability) + (0.20 × Balanced Production) + (0.15 × Special Teams) + (0.10 × Win Momentum)

Scoring Factors

Factor	Weight	What It Measures
Performance Trend	30%	Goals/game, shots/game improving vs baseline
Line Stability	25%	Same combinations 3+ games, no healthy scratches
Balanced Production	20%	Multiple scorers (not one-man show)
Special Teams	15%	PP% and PK% improvement
Win Momentum	10%	Win streaks, goals against trending down

Score Thresholds

• >75 = Locked In (stack aggressively, high confidence)
• 50-75 = Emerging Buy-In (add stars, monitor depth)
• <50 = No Clear Signal (wait for clarity)

Buy-In Stage Classifications

Early Stage (2-5 games)

• Indicators: New coach/system installed, players learning
• Characteristics: High variance, mixed results
• Action: Monitor only, don't add yet
• Example: "New coach bump wore off, searching for identity"

Emerging Phase (6-12 games)

• Indicators: Pattern forming, metrics improving, positive quotes
• Characteristics: Consistent improvement, line stability emerging
• Action: Add star players, watch depth for breakouts
• Example: "Top line clicking, system taking shape"

Locked In (13+ games)

• Indicators: Sustained performance, market aware
• Characteristics: Ownership % rising, metrics stable
• Action: Hold if rostered, late to add
• Example: "Everyone knows they're good now, ownership up 20%"

Five Key Indicators

1. Metrics Surge

• Goals per game: +0.5 GPG or more
• Shots per game: +3 shots or more
• PP efficiency: +5% or more
• Save percentage: Stabilization (variance decreasing)

What to Look For:

Before: 2.4 GPG, 28 shots/game, 18% PP
After:  3.1 GPG, 32 shots/game, 24% PP
Verdict: +0.7 GPG, +4 shots, +6% PP = SURGE ✓

2. Line Stability

• Same combinations: 3+ consecutive games
• No healthy scratches: Veterans playing consistently
• Role clarity: Clear top-6, bottom-6 definition
• Callups integrating: New players slotting in smoothly

Red Flags:

• Daily line blender (no consistency)
• Healthy scratches of vets (lost confidence)
• Position experiments (D to wing, etc.)

3. Balanced Production

• Multiple scorers: 3+ players with points in last 5 games
• Depth contributing: Bottom-6 chipping in
• Not one-man show: Star carrying vs team effort
• Secondary assists: Passing plays (not individual rushes)

Example:

Top Line: Celebrini (4G), Eklund (3G-2A), Zetterlund (2G-3A)
Verdict: All 3 producing = BALANCED ✓

vs.

One Star: McDavid (8 points), everyone else <2 = ONE-MAN SHOW ✗

4. Special Teams Improvement

• PP%: Trending up (5+ game sample)
• PK%: Stable or improving
• PP1 consistency: Same unit 3+ games
• Rush coordination: Quick transitions, passing lanes

5. Win Momentum

• Win streak: 2+ consecutive wins
• Close game success: Winning 1-goal games (clutch)
• Goals against: Declining (defense buying in too)
• Third period performance: Not blowing leads

Usage

Auto-Detect Hot Teams

{
  "auto_scan": true,
  "min_buyin_score": 60
}

Scans all NHL teams for buy-in signals, shows only high-confidence (60+).

Specific Team Analysis

{
  "team": "SJS",
  "timeframe": 14,
  "include_stacks": true
}

Deep dive on San Jose Sharks, last 14 days, with line stack recommendations.

With Comparison

{
  "team": "ANA",
  "compare_to": "preseason",
  "confidence_threshold": 7
}

Compare Anaheim to preseason baseline, only show high-confidence signals (7+/10).

Full Example

{
  "team": "SJS",
  "timeframe": 14,
  "include_stacks": true,
  "compare_to": "last_month",
  "min_buyin_score": 50,
  "max_stacks": 3,
  "chirp_intensity": "ice_cold",
  "personality_mode": "roast_master"
}

Parameters

Optional

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
team	String	Auto-scan	NHL team abbreviation (e.g., "SJS", "ANA")
auto_scan	Boolean	false	Scan all teams for buy-in signals
timeframe	Number	14	Days to analyze (recommended 10-21)
include_stacks	Boolean	true	Include line stack recommendations
compare_to	String	none	"preseason" | "last_month" | "last_season"
min_buyin_score	Number	50	Minimum score to include (0-100)
confidence_threshold	Number	5	Minimum confidence (1-10)
max_stacks	Number	3	Maximum line stacks to recommend
chirp_intensity	String	ice_cold	Chirp intensity level
personality_mode	String	analytical	Chirp personality style
enable_chirp	Boolean	true	Enable/disable chirp intelligence

Example Queries

"Which teams are clicking right now?"

Scan all NHL teams for buy-in signals.
Show me teams scoring 75+ where I can stack lines.

"Is San Jose's young core coming together?"

Analyze San Jose Sharks for team buy-in.
Has Celebrini's line chemistry clicked?
Show me line stacks to target.

"Did the new coach change anything?"

Analyze Anaheim since Cronin hire.
Compare metrics to preseason.
Is the system working?

Response Structure

{
  "analysis_insights": {
    "teams_analyzed": 1,
    "high_buyin_teams": 1,
    "total_stacks_found": 3
  },
  "recommendations": [
    {
      "team": "SJS",
      "buyin_score": 78,
      "classification": "locked_in",
      "stage": "Momentum Phase (10 games)",
      "confidence": 8,
      "metrics_surge": {
        "goals_per_game": { "from": 2.2, "to": 3.1, "change": +0.9 },
        "pp_percentage": { "from": 16.5, "to": 23.8, "change": +7.3 },
        "shots_per_game": { "from": 27.4, "to": 31.2, "change": +3.8 }
      },
      "line_stacks": [
        {
          "line": "Top Line",
          "players": [
            { "name": "Macklin Celebrini", "position": "C", "ownership": 87 },
            { "name": "William Eklund", "position": "LW", "ownership": 52 },
            { "name": "Fabian Zetterlund", "position": "RW", "ownership": 38 }
          ],
          "stack_score": 82,
          "chemistry_indicator": "Celebrini driving play, Eklund finishing",
          "add_priority": "IMMEDIATE",
          "ownership_avg": 59,
          "stack_strategy": "Add all 3 - this line is clicking"
        }
      ],
      "evidence": {
        "line_stability": "Same top-6 for 8 consecutive games",
        "balanced_production": "6 different goal scorers in last 5 games",
        "special_teams": "PP1 running same unit, 4-for-14 last 7 games",
        "momentum": "4-1-0 last 5 games, allowing 2.2 GA/G"
      },
      "risks": [
        "Smith injury could disrupt chemistry",
        "Tough schedule next 10 days (5 road games)",
        "Goaltending still shaky (0.897 SV%)"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "chirp_intelligence": {
    "analysis_chirp": "🔥 That's not a team, that's a freight train...",
    "ice_cold_truth": "When the whole squad gets it, you stack aggressively..."
  }
}

Stack Recommendation Examples

Top Line Stack (High Priority)

Team: San Jose Sharks
Line: Celebrini - Eklund - Zetterlund
Stack Score: 82 (IMMEDIATE ADD)

Chemistry Evidence:
✓ 8 consecutive games together
✓ 12 goals combined (last 5 games)
✓ All 3 producing in 4 of 5 games
✓ Passing lane synchronization visible

Ownership Opportunity:
  Celebrini: 87% (already rostered)
  Eklund: 52% (available in half leagues)
  Zetterlund: 38% (widely available)

Stack Strategy:
"Add Eklund + Zetterlund if Celebrini is owned.
This line is clicking - ride the chemistry wave."

Add Priority: IMMEDIATE
Confidence: 8/10
Expected Duration: 2-3 weeks (monitor for system change)

PP1 Stack (Medium Priority)

Team: Anaheim Ducks
PP1 Unit: Zegras - McTavish - Carlsson - Mintyukov - Dostal
Stack Score: 68 (HIGH ADD)

Chemistry Evidence:
~ PP% up from 14% to 21% (7 games)
~ Same unit 6 consecutive games
~ Multiple options (not just one-timer)
~ Carlsson QB running plays

Ownership Opportunity:
  McTavish: 64%
  Zegras: 58%
  Carlsson: 71%
  Mintyukov: 23% ← Value target

Stack Strategy:
"Target Mintyukov (QB on PP1, 23% owned).
If desperate, add Zegras too - PP clicking."

Add Priority: HIGH
Confidence: 7/10
Risk: Small sample (only 7 games)

Depth Line Stack (Monitor)

Team: Columbus Blue Jackets
Line: Marchenko - Jenner - Gaudreau
Stack Score: 58 (MONITOR)

Chemistry Evidence:
~ 3 games together (new combination)
~ 4 goals combined (promising start)
~ Defensive assignments loosening
~ Eye test: passing improving

Ownership Opportunity:
  Gaudreau: 89% (owned everywhere)
  Jenner: 47% (available)
  Marchenko: 52% (available)

Stack Strategy:
"Monitor for 2-3 more games. If production continues,
add Jenner + Marchenko. Don't force it yet."

Add Priority: MONITOR
Confidence: 5/10
Wait Signal: 2 more productive games

Chirp Style: whole_squad_clicking

The team buy-in analyzer uses a "chemistry unlocked" chirp style that:

• Celebrates team cohesion over individual brilliance
• Emphasizes stacking strategy - multiple adds simultaneously
• Warns about forcing stacks on variance spikes
• Distinguishes systems from flukes - sustainable vs lucky

Sample Chirps

Locked In Buy-In:

"🔥 That's not a team, that's a freight train. Coach installed the system. Players bought in. Stack 'em all."

Emerging Chemistry:

"Three games ago this was chaos. Now it's poetry. Add the whole line before your league wakes up."

Line Clicking:

"When the whole squad gets it, you stack aggressively or watch from the sidelines. This is your window."

System Taking Hold:

"Team chemistry just clicked - this isn't one hot player, it's contagious. Ride the wave."

False Signal Warning:

"⚠️ That's variance, not buy-in. Two-game sample with lucky shooting. Wait for confirmation."

One-Man Show:

"McDavid has 8 points, everyone else has 2. That's not buy-in, that's a carry job. Pass."

When to Use This Tool

✅ Perfect For

• New coach hires - System installation (6-15 game window)
• Young core maturation - Rookies clicking (early season)
• Post-slump rebounds - Team finding identity again
• Trade additions - New pieces integrating quickly
• Line stacking strategy - Maximize correlated scoring
• Contrarian plays - Beat market to chemistry breakthroughs

❌ Not Ideal For

• Established contenders - Already widely owned
• One-star teams - No depth to stack
• Goalie streaming - Use dedicated goalie tools
• Individual breakouts - Use analyze_breakout_players
• Injury replacements - Use analyze_injury_impact

Comparison: Team Buy-In vs Other Tools

Feature	Team Buy-In	Breakout Analysis	Weekend Streams	Injury Impact
Focus	Line chemistry	Individual gems	Tactical fills	Opportunity shifts
Signal	Team cohesion	Hidden value	Desperation check	Beneficiaries
Adds	Multiple (stack)	Single player	Single player	Single player
Horizon	2-3 weeks	Multi-week	3-7 days	Injury-dependent
Best For	Stacking lines	Finding value	Bye weeks	React to injuries

Team Buy-In is the only tool that recommends MULTIPLE players simultaneously.

Tips for Maximum Value

1. Wait for 6+ game sample - Don't chase 3-game variance
2. Stack aggressively at 75+ score - High confidence window
3. Target low ownership - Eklund (52%) > Celebrini (87%)
4. Monitor young cores - Sharks, Ducks, Blue Jackets
5. New coach systems - 10-15 game sweet spot for detection
6. Line stability matters - Same combos 3+ games = real
7. Balanced production beats stars - 3 scorers > 1 carrying
8. PP1 stacks pay double - Power play + 5v5 production
9. Don't force it - <50 score = wait for signal
10. Exit at ownership spike - Market caught up, edge gone

Advanced Strategies

New Coach Arbitrage

Target teams with new coaches (0-20 games):

1. Wait for 6-game sample
2. Run buy-in analysis
3. Add stacks if score >70
4. Ride 10-15 game window
5. Sell when ownership spikes

Example: Anaheim hires new coach Oct 1

• Oct 1-10: Monitor (early stage)
• Oct 11-20: Analyze (buy-in check)
• Oct 21-Nov 5: Stack if clicking (emerging phase)
• Nov 6+: Exit or hold (market aware)

Young Core Maturation

Teams with multiple rookies/sophomores:

• San Jose (Celebrini, Eklund, Smith)
• Anaheim (Carlsson, Zegras, McTavish)
• Columbus (Fantilli, Johnson, Jiricek)

Strategy:

1. Run weekly buy-in checks
2. Look for "clicked" moment (score jumps 50→75)
3. Stack entire top line
4. Ride 3-4 week wave
5. Monitor for regression

PP Unit Targeting

Focus on power play stacks specifically:

• Filter for special teams improvement (>5% PP jump)
• Target low-owned PP1 players
• Stack D + F on same unit
• Exit when PP% regresses to mean

Contrarian Depth Stacking

When top line is rostered, target line 2:

1. Identify team buy-in (score >70)
2. Check line 2 stability
3. Add if ownership <50%
4. Ride system benefits
5. Lower ceiling but higher availability

Chemistry Wave Surfing

Teams cycle through chemistry phases:

1. Search phase - No stack
2. Click phase - Stack aggressively ← TARGET
3. Plateau phase - Hold or exit
4. Regression phase - Sell

Tool helps identify transition from 1→2 early.

Troubleshooting

"All teams showing low buy-in scores"

Possible reasons:

• Too early in season (sample size)
• League-wide parity (no clear standouts)
• Variance smoothing out (teams regressing to mean)

Action: Lower threshold to 50, look for "emerging" signals

"Team scored high but stacks aren't producing"

Check for:

• Score based on small sample (6 games)
• One-man show (balanced production = false)
• Special teams driving score (5v5 not clicking)
• Luck factors (shooting % spike)

Action: Re-run after 3 more games, verify balance

"Stack recommendation shows all high ownership"

This means:

• Market already aware (late to signal)
• Team is established contender
• Tool caught trend too late

Action: Look for depth stacks (line 2/PP2) with lower ownership

"Buy-in score conflicts with eye test"

Tool is data-driven, eye test can be biased:

• Check evidence table for specifics
• Verify line stability
• Confirm balanced production
• Trust quantified metrics over feel

Action: If confidence <7, wait for more games

Real-World Example

Scenario: San Jose Sharks Young Core (Oct 2025)

News: "Celebrini, Eklund showing chemistry in preseason"

Query:

Analyze San Jose Sharks for team buy-in.
Compare to preseason baseline.
Show line stack recommendations.

Tool Analysis (Oct 18, 2025 - After 10 games):

Buy-In Score: 78 (LOCKED IN)Stage: Momentum Phase (10 games) Confidence: 8/10

Metrics Surge:

• Goals/game: 2.1 → 3.2 (+1.1) ✓✓
• PP%: 15.2% → 23.8% (+8.6%) ✓✓
• Shots/game: 26.8 → 31.4 (+4.6) ✓
• Save%: 0.891 → 0.903 (+0.012) ✓

Evidence:

Line Stability: ✓
  - Top line (Celebrini-Eklund-Zetterlund)
    unchanged 8 consecutive games

Balanced Production: ✓
  - 7 different goal scorers last 5 games
  - Celebrini (5G-3A), Eklund (3G-4A),
    Zetterlund (2G-3A) - all producing

Special Teams: ✓
  - PP1 same unit 10 games
  - 6-for-23 last 7 games (26.1%)

Momentum: ✓
  - 6-4-0 record (60% win rate)
  - 4-1-0 last 5 games
  - Goals against: 2.4/game (down from 3.2)

Top Stack Recommendation:

Line: Celebrini - Eklund - Zetterlund
Stack Score: 82 (IMMEDIATE)

Ownership:
  Celebrini: 87% (rostered)
  Eklund: 52% (AVAILABLE) ← TARGET
  Zetterlund: 38% (AVAILABLE) ← TARGET

Chemistry Evidence:
"Celebrini driving play (1.2 PPG),
Eklund finishing (0.7 PPG on wing),
Zetterlund net-front presence (0.5 PPG).
All 3 on PP1. System clicking."

Add Priority: IMMEDIATE
Strategy: "Add Eklund + Zetterlund NOW.
This line is locked in, ownership lagging."

Risks:

• Smith injury could force line changes
• Tough schedule next 10 days (EDM, COL, VGK)
• Goaltending still inconsistent

Chirp:

"🔥 Three games ago this was a rebuild. Now it's a chemistry lab explosion. Eklund is 52% owned? Your league is sleeping. Stack the entire line before Monday waivers."

Outcome:

• Manager adds Eklund + Zetterlund Saturday night
• League catches on by Tuesday (ownership jumps to 68% and 55%)
• Manager rides 3-week wave (all 3 producing)
• Total points from stack: 47 points (3 weeks)

---

"When the whole squad gets it, you stack aggressively or watch from the sidelines." - ICE, on team chemistry

🏒 When you call this tool, you're not analyzing players. You're detecting when magic happens and the entire team clicks.