Must-Win Goalie Streaming

🥅 Start With Confidence - Win probability for H2H dominance

The Must-Win Goalie Streaming tool helps you make smart goalie start/sit decisions in head-to-head leagues. It prioritizes winning goalie categories first, then maximizes volume stats as a tiebreaker, with league-specific customization for your scoring system.

Overview

Tool Name: analyze_goalie_streams

Chirp Style: crease_commander

Time Horizon: Weekend/weekly (2-7 day window)

What It Does

Goalie streaming is make-or-break in H2H leagues. This tool:

1. Calculates Win Probability - 0-100% score for each goalie matchup
2. Prioritizes Categories - Wins first, volume (SA/Saves) second
3. Classifies Confidence - Must-Start, Strong-Start, Risky, Avoid
4. Detects Tandems - Starter confirmation and rotation patterns
5. Customizes for League - Adjust for your category scoring

The Problem It Solves

Generic goalie advice fails in H2H because:

• Doesn't consider your matchup - You might need Wins specifically
• Ignores category priorities - Not all stats matter equally
• Misses volume opportunities - SA/Saves can be tiebreakers
• Lacks confidence levels - 51% vs 78% win probability = different decisions
• Doesn't track tandems - Starter uncertainty kills value

This tool helps you:

• Win the Wins category - Primary goal in most H2H leagues
• Maximize volume stats - SA/Saves as tiebreakers (league-dependent)
• Avoid risky starts - Don't crater your SV% for a maybe-win
• Beat tandem uncertainty - Predict starter patterns
• Make confident decisions - 75%+ win prob = start without stress

Win Probability Scoring

Score = (0.35 × Team Strength) + (0.25 × Opponent Weakness) + (0.20 × Goalie Form) + (0.15 × Home Ice) + (0.05 × Rest Factor)

Win Probability Factors

Factor	Weight	What It Measures
Team Strength	35%	Your goalie's team form (Corsi proxy, recent record)
Opponent Weakness	25%	Opponent offensive rank, goals/game, recent slump
Goalie Form	20%	Recent SV%, last 5 starts, consistency
Home Ice Advantage	15%	Home vs away (home = +10-15% win prob)
Rest Factor	5%	Days since last start (0-1 days = fatigued)

Win Probability Thresholds

• >75% = Lock (start with confidence)
• 60-75% = Strong (start unless desperate for SV%)
• 45-60% = Risky (only if need Wins badly)
• <45% = Avoid (don't start, protect your ratios)

Volume Score (League-Specific)

Volume Score = (0.50 × Opponent Shot Rate) + (0.30 × Historical SA) + (0.20 × Game Pace)

Used as tiebreaker when multiple goalies have similar win probability.

For Leagues Where SA is Positive (Higher = Better)

Maximize shot volume:

• Target opponents who shoot often (>30 shots/game)
• Favor fast-paced games
• Examples: vs Carolina, Florida, Toronto (high-shot teams)

For Leagues Where SV% Matters Most

Balance volume with quality:

• Target high-shot games with weak opponents
• Avoid elite offenses (protect SV%)
• Examples: vs Buffalo (many shots, weak offense)

For Leagues Counting Saves

Pure volume play:

• More shots = more saves = more points
• Quality of opponent less important
• Target highest shot-volume matchups

Final Stream Score Formula

Stream Score =
  (0.70 × Win Probability) +     // Primary: Win the category
  (0.30 × Volume Score)          // Secondary: Maximize SA/Saves

Adjusted by category priorities:
- High Wins priority: 0.80 / 0.20 split
- High Volume priority: 0.60 / 0.40 split
- Balanced: 0.70 / 0.30 split (default)

Classification System

Must-Start (Score 75+)

Criteria:
✓ >75% win probability
✓ High volume matchup (>30 shots expected)
✓ Starter confirmed
✓ Well-rested (2+ days since last start)
✓ No injury concerns

Confidence: Start without hesitation

Example:

Shesterkin vs BUF (Home)
- Win Prob: 82%
- Projected Shots: 34
- Stream Score: 86
- Classification: MUST-START
- Reasoning: "Home ice, elite goalie, high-volume opponent with weak offense"

Strong-Start (Score 60-75)

Criteria:
✓ 60-75% win probability
✓ Medium volume (25-30 shots)
✓ Starter likely
~ Minor risk factor (tough opp or back-to-back)

Confidence: Start unless protecting ratios

Example:

Talbot vs EDM (Away)
- Win Prob: 68%
- Projected Shots: 28
- Stream Score: 72
- Classification: STRONG-START
- Reasoning: "Road game but weak opponent, solid volume"

Risky-Start (Score 45-60)

Criteria:
~ 50-60% win probability
~ Volume uncertain
~ Starter unclear
✗ Multiple risk factors

Confidence: Only if desperate for Wins

Example:

Binnington vs COL (Home)
- Win Prob: 54%
- Projected Shots: 32
- Stream Score: 58
- Classification: RISKY-START
- Reasoning: "Tough opponent, high shots but elite offense threatens SV%"

Avoid (Score <45)

Criteria:
✗ <50% win probability
✗ Low volume or uncertain starter
✗ High risk (injury, slump, back-to-back)

Confidence: Don't start

Example:

Reimer vs BOS (Away)
- Win Prob: 38%
- Projected Shots: 35
- Stream Score: 42
- Classification: AVOID
- Reasoning: "Elite opponent, backup goalie, low win probability"

Usage

Weekend Goalie Scan

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-17",
    "end": "2025-10-19"
  },
  "min_win_probability": 60,
  "starter_only": true
}

Shows all goalies with >60% win probability starting this weekend.

League-Specific Priorities

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-17",
    "end": "2025-10-19"
  },
  "category_priorities": {
    "wins": 0.70,
    "shots_against": 0.30  // SA positive in your league
  },
  "min_win_probability": 60
}

Customizes for leagues where SA is a positive category.

Matchup-Aware Analysis

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-17",
    "end": "2025-10-19"
  },
  "my_matchup_status": {
    "wins_gap": -2,           // Trailing by 2 wins
    "sa_gap": +14,            // Leading by 14 SA
    "sv_pct_gap": +0.008      // Winning SV%
  },
  "strategy": "catch_up"      // Need Wins priority
}

Factors in your current matchup position.

Full Example

{
  "date_range": {
    "start": "2025-10-17",
    "end": "2025-10-19"
  },
  "category_priorities": {
    "wins": 0.80,
    "shots_against": 0.20
  },
  "min_win_probability": 65,
  "ownership_max": 75,
  "max_results": 5,
  "include_tandem_analysis": true,
  "chirp_intensity": "ice_cold",
  "personality_mode": "analytical"
}

Parameters

Required

Parameter	Type	Description
date_range	Object	Weekend/week to analyze
date_range.start	String	Start date (YYYY-MM-DD)
date_range.end	String	End date (YYYY-MM-DD)

Optional

Parameter	Type	Default	Description
category_priorities	Object	See below	League-specific category weights
category_priorities.wins	Number	0.70	Weight for Wins (0-1)
category_priorities.saves	Number	0.15	Weight for Saves (0-1)
category_priorities.shots_against	Number	0.30	Weight for SA (0-1, if positive cat)
category_priorities.save_percentage	Number	0.10	Weight for SV% (0-1)
category_priorities.shutouts	Number	0.05	Weight for Shutouts (0-1)
min_win_probability	Number	60	Minimum win % to include
starter_only	Boolean	true	Filter confirmed/likely starters only
ownership_max	Number	100	Max ownership % (find streamers)
my_matchup_status	Object	None	Your current H2H matchup gaps
strategy	String	balanced	"catch_up" | "protect_lead" | "balanced"
include_tandem_analysis	Boolean	true	Show tandem patterns
max_results	Number	10	Maximum goalies to return
chirp_intensity	String	ice_cold	Chirp intensity level
personality_mode	String	analytical	Chirp personality style
enable_chirp	Boolean	true	Enable/disable chirp intelligence

Category Priority Presets

Standard H2H (Wins + SV%)

{
  wins: 0.70,
  save_percentage: 0.30
}

Volume League (SA Positive)

{
  wins: 0.70,
  shots_against: 0.30
}

Saves Count League

{
  wins: 0.50,
  saves: 0.30,
  shots_against: 0.20
}

Ratio Protection League

{
  wins: 0.60,
  save_percentage: 0.40
}

Example Queries

"Who should I start this weekend?"

Analyze goalie streams for Oct 17-19.
Show me must-start goalies with high win probability.
My league counts Wins and SA as positive.

"I'm trailing in Wins"

Find goalie streams for this weekend.
I'm down 2 wins in my matchup.
Prioritize win probability over volume.

"Volume play for SA"

Analyze weekend goalies.
My league rewards high shot volume (SA positive).
Show me high-volume matchups with decent win odds.

Response Structure

{
  "analysis_insights": {
    "total_goalies_analyzed": 24,
    "must_start_count": 3,
    "strong_start_count": 5,
    "risky_count": 8,
    "weekend_games": 15
  },
  "recommendations": [
    {
      "priority": "CRITICAL",
      "action": "start",
      "goalie": {
        "name": "Igor Shesterkin",
        "team": "NYR",
        "opponent": "BUF",
        "opponent_rank": 28,
        "win_probability": 82,
        "projected_shots": 34,
        "stream_score": 86,
        "classification": "must_start",
        "starter_confidence": "confirmed",
        "home_away": "home",
        "days_rest": 2,
        "recent_form": {
          "last_5_sv_pct": 0.923,
          "last_5_gaa": 2.1,
          "starts_last_week": 2
        },
        "matchup_factors": {
          "opponent_gpg": 2.4,
          "opponent_shots_pg": 33.8,
          "historical_sa": 35.2
        },
        "risks": [],
        "ownership": 98
      },
      "reasoning": "Lock: 82% win prob, home ice vs weak offense, high volume (34 shots expected)"
    }
  ],
  "tandem_analysis": [
    {
      "team": "VAN",
      "primary_goalie": "Thatcher Demko",
      "backup_goalie": "Casey DeSmith",
      "split_pattern": "Demko 60% / DeSmith 40%",
      "next_start_prediction": {
        "date": "2025-10-18",
        "predicted_starter": "Demko",
        "confidence": 0.75,
        "reasoning": "Home game, Demko rested 2 days"
      }
    }
  ],
  "chirp_intelligence": {
    "analysis_chirp": "🥅 78% win probability? That's not a stream, that's a lock...",
    "ice_cold_truth": "Start with confidence or watch your opponent win Wins..."
  }
}

Classification Examples

Must-Start Example

Goalie: Igor Shesterkin (NYR)
Opponent: Buffalo Sabres (Away)
Classification: MUST-START
Stream Score: 86

Win Probability Breakdown:
✓ Team Strength: 88/100 (NYR 5-2-0, strong possession)
✓ Opponent Weakness: 82/100 (BUF 28th offense, 2.4 GPG)
✓ Goalie Form: 91/100 (0.923 SV% last 5 starts)
✓ Home Ice: 85/100 (home game at MSG)
✓ Rest: 90/100 (2 days rest, fresh)

Win Probability: 82%

Volume Analysis:
✓ Projected Shots: 34 (BUF avg 33.8 shots/game)
✓ Historical vs BUF: 35.2 SA average
✓ High-volume matchup ✓

Volume Score: 88/100

Risks: None
Starter Confidence: Confirmed (started last game)
Ownership: 98%

Add Priority: START IMMEDIATELY
Chirp: "Lock. Home ice, elite goalie, weak opponent, 34 shots expected. Start without thinking."

Strong-Start Example

Goalie: Cam Talbot (LAK)
Opponent: Edmonton Oilers (Away)
Classification: STRONG-START
Stream Score: 72

Win Probability Breakdown:
~ Team Strength: 72/100 (LAK 4-3-1, decent form)
✓ Opponent Weakness: 65/100 (EDM offense slumping, 2.8 GPG)
~ Goalie Form: 74/100 (0.908 SV% last 5, solid not elite)
✗ Home Ice: 45/100 (road game at Rogers Place)
✓ Rest: 85/100 (1 day rest, acceptable)

Win Probability: 68%

Volume Analysis:
~ Projected Shots: 28 (EDM avg 29.1 shots/game)
~ Historical vs EDM: 30.5 SA average
~ Medium-volume matchup

Volume Score: 74/100

Risks: Road game (away disadvantage)
Starter Confidence: Likely (played 2 of last 3)
Ownership: 64%

Add Priority: HIGH
Chirp: "Not a lock but solid. Road game hurts but weak opponent helps. Start if you need the Win."

Risky-Start Example

Goalie: Jordan Binnington (STL)
Opponent: Colorado Avalanche (Home)
Classification: RISKY-START
Stream Score: 58

Win Probability Breakdown:
~ Team Strength: 61/100 (STL 3-4-1, mediocre)
✗ Opponent Weakness: 38/100 (COL 5th offense, 3.4 GPG)
~ Goalie Form: 68/100 (0.901 SV% last 5, inconsistent)
✓ Home Ice: 75/100 (home at Enterprise Center)
~ Rest: 70/100 (1 day rest)

Win Probability: 54%

Volume Analysis:
✓ Projected Shots: 32 (COL avg 31.6 shots/game)
✓ High shot volume ✓
✗ Elite offense threatens SV%

Volume Score: 72/100

Risks:
- Elite opponent (COL top-5 offense)
- Recent inconsistency (3 losses last 5)
- SV% risk (COL shoots quality)

Starter Confidence: Confirmed
Ownership: 52%

Add Priority: MEDIUM (only if desperate)
Chirp: "Coin flip territory. High volume but elite opponent. Only start if you're chasing Wins. Your SV% won't thank you."

Avoid Example

Goalie: James Reimer (DET)
Opponent: Boston Bruins (Away)
Classification: AVOID
Stream Score: 42

Win Probability Breakdown:
✗ Team Strength: 48/100 (DET 2-5-1, struggling)
✗ Opponent Weakness: 28/100 (BOS 3rd offense, 3.6 GPG)
✗ Goalie Form: 52/100 (0.892 SV% last 5, slumping)
✗ Home Ice: 35/100 (road at TD Garden)
~ Rest: 70/100 (1 day rest)

Win Probability: 38%

Volume Analysis:
✓ Projected Shots: 35 (BOS avg 33.2 shots/game)
✗ Elite offense + backup goalie = disaster

Volume Score: 45/100

Risks:
- Backup goalie (Reimer 40% starter)
- Elite opponent on road
- Recent slump (4 losses last 5)
- SV% crater risk

Starter Confidence: Uncertain (backup role)
Ownership: 18%

Add Priority: PASS
Chirp: "Don't do it. 38% win probability, backup goalie, road game vs elite offense. This is how you lose the week. Sit."

Tandem Analysis

Goalie Rotation Patterns

Example: Vancouver Canucks

Primary: Thatcher Demko (60% starter)
Backup: Casey DeSmith (40% starter)

Pattern Detection:
- Demko starts most home games (8 of 10)
- DeSmith gets road back-to-backs
- Demko plays vs elite opponents (BOS, COL, EDM)
- DeSmith vs weaker teams (BUF, SJS, ANA)

Next 5 Games:
1. Oct 17 vs CGY (Home) → Demko (75% confidence)
2. Oct 19 @ EDM (Road) → Demko (65% confidence, elite opp)
3. Oct 20 @ CGY (Road B2B) → DeSmith (85% confidence)
4. Oct 23 vs SEA (Home) → Demko (80% confidence)
5. Oct 25 @ VGK (Road) → DeSmith (60% confidence)

Actionable Insight:

Stream Strategy:
- Target Demko Oct 17 vs CGY (must-start)
- Avoid Oct 19-20 back-to-back (uncertain)
- Consider DeSmith Oct 20 @ CGY if desperate (road B2B = confirmed start)

Backup Goalie Opportunities

When backup has high win probability:

Georgiev (Backup, 40% starter)
Next Start: vs ARI (Home)
Win Probability: 76% (weak opponent)
Stream Score: 74 (strong-start)

Reasoning: "Backup but elite matchup.
If starter confirmed, this is a strong add.
Monitor morning skate for confirmation."

Matchup Strategy Integration

When Trailing in Wins

Your Status: Down 2-3 in Wins category

Strategy: Aggressive Win Hunting
- Increase win probability weight to 0.80
- Lower threshold to 55% (take more risks)
- Target multiple starts (2-3 goalies this weekend)
- Accept SV% risk for Win chances

Recommended Adds:
1. Shesterkin vs BUF (82% win prob) - LOCK
2. Talbot vs EDM (68% win prob) - START
3. Binnington vs COL (54% win prob) - RISKY but worth it

When Leading (Protect Ratios)

Your Status: Winning Wins 4-2, SV% 0.912-0.904

Strategy: Ratio Protection
- Increase win probability threshold to 70%
- Add SV% protection factor
- Avoid risky starts (<65% win prob)
- Quality over quantity

Recommended Adds:
1. Shesterkin vs BUF (82% win prob) - Safe
2. Talbot vs EDM (68% win prob) - Acceptable
3. AVOID Binnington vs COL (54% = risky, could hurt SV%)

When Need Volume (SA/Saves)

Your Status: Trailing in SA 142-158

Strategy: Volume Play
- Increase volume weight to 0.40
- Target high-shot opponents (>30 shots/game)
- Accept slightly lower win prob (55%+)
- Multiple starts for accumulation

Recommended Adds:
1. Anyone vs CAR (35+ shots/game)
2. Anyone vs FLA (33+ shots/game)
3. Anyone vs TOR (32+ shots/game)

Chirp Style: crease_commander

The goalie streaming tool uses a "crease commander" chirp style that:

• Commands with confidence on must-starts
• Warns about risks on questionable matchups
• Protects ratios - stops you from crater starts
• Emphasizes win probability - data over gut

Sample Chirps

Must-Start (75%+):

"🥅 78% win probability? That's not a stream, that's a lock. Start with confidence. Home ice, elite goalie, weak opponent. This is gift-wrapped."

Strong-Start (60-75%):

"68% win odds, decent volume. Not a lock but solid. Start unless you're protecting a fragile SV% lead."

Risky-Start (45-60%):

"⚠️ Coin flip territory. 54% win probability, elite opponent, high shot volume. Only start if you're chasing Wins desperately. Your SV% won't thank you."

Avoid (<45%):

"🛑 Don't do it. 38% win probability, backup goalie on the road vs elite offense. This is how you lose the week. Sit and wait for a better spot."

Back-to-Back Warning:

"Back-to-back with travel? Your goalie is cooked. Fresh legs get lit up in B2Bs, and these are tired legs. Hard pass."

Volume Play:

"Buffalo shoots 34 times a game. That's not a tough matchup, that's an SA goldmine for your league scoring. Start and cash in."

Tandem Uncertainty:

"Starter unclear, backup got last game. You're gambling on morning skate. If you need certainty, look elsewhere."

When to Use This Tool

✅ Perfect For

• Weekend goalie streaming - Friday-Sunday window
• H2H matchup management - Win specific categories
• Volume leagues - SA/Saves as positive stats
• Tandem navigation - Predict starter patterns
• Ratio protection - Avoid risky starts when winning SV%
• Multi-goalie strategy - 2-3 starts per week leagues

❌ Not Ideal For

• Roto leagues - Different strategy (season-long ratios)
• Single-goalie leagues - Less streaming opportunity
• Non-goalie analysis - Use skater tools instead
• Long-term pickups - This is streaming, not season adds

Comparison: Goalie Streams vs Other Tools

Feature	Goalie Streams	Weekend Streams	Injury Impact	Team Buy-In
Position	Goalies only	Skaters	All positions	All skaters
Focus	Win probability	Desperation check	Opportunity	Chemistry
Output	Start/sit advice	Add/drop	Beneficiaries	Line stacks
Horizon	2-7 days	3-7 days	Injury timeline	2-3 weeks
Strategy	H2H categories	Tactical fills	React fast	Stack lines

Goalie Streams completes your position coverage: Forwards, Defense, Goalies.

Tips for Maximum Value

1. Run Friday morning - Get ahead of weekend starts
2. Trust 75%+ win probability - These are locks, start confidently
3. Avoid <50% unless desperate - Protect your ratios
4. Monitor tandem patterns - Predict starter 24 hours ahead
5. Adjust for your league - SA positive vs SV% priority changes strategy
6. Check morning skate - Confirm starter before games
7. Volume plays in volume leagues - Don't overthink if SA counts
8. Road back-to-backs = risky - Travel + fatigue = danger
9. Home ice matters - +10-15% win probability boost
10. Multiple starts = variance - 2 starts > 1 for accumulation

Advanced Strategies

Weekend Multi-Start Strategy

Friday: Shesterkin vs BUF (82% win prob, 34 shots)
Saturday: SKIP (no great matchups)
Sunday: Georgiev vs ARI (76% win prob, 28 shots)

Total Expected:
- Wins: ~1.6 wins (82% + 76% = 158%)
- SA: ~62 shots
- Risk: Low (both high win prob)

Strategy: "Two high-probability starts beats three risky ones.
Quality over quantity when win prob is elite."

Back-to-Back Navigation

Saturday-Sunday B2B: VAN @ EDM, @ CGY

Option A: Start Demko Saturday (65% win), sit Sunday
Option B: Sit Saturday, start backup Sunday (58% win)
Option C: Skip both (safe)

Recommendation: Option A if leading, Option C if protecting ratios

Tandem Arbitrage

Team with unclear tandem: DET (Husso vs Reimer)

Strategy:
1. Identify pattern (Husso gets home games)
2. Next game: vs BUF (Home)
3. Predict: Husso starts (75% confidence)
4. Win prob if Husso: 71%
5. Add Friday AM if confirmed

Result: Beat league to high win-prob start

Volume Stacking

Your league: SA + Saves both positive

Strategy: Target high-shot games regardless of opponent
- vs CAR (35 shots/game)
- vs FLA (33 shots/game)
- vs TOR (32 shots/game)

Accept 55%+ win probability for 30+ shot volume
Accumulate SA + Saves across multiple starts

Ratio Protection Mode

Your SV%: 0.915 (winning)
Opponent SV%: 0.902

Strategy: Only start 70%+ win probability
- Avoid tough matchups (<65%)
- Protect lead vs accumulate volume
- One safe start > two risky starts

Add: Shesterkin vs BUF (82% = safe)
Avoid: Binnington vs COL (54% = risky)

Troubleshooting

"All goalies showing low win probability"

Likely causes:

• Tough schedule week (many elite opponents)
• Your available goalies are backups
• Small sample (early season variance)

Action: Lower threshold to 50%, add context analysis

"Starter predictions keep being wrong"

Check for:

• Tandem with no clear pattern yet
• Recent injury/performance changes
• Back-to-back schedules (pattern shifts)

Action: Wait for morning skate confirmation, don't add speculatively

"High win prob but goalie got shelled"

Variance happens:

• 80% win prob ≠ 100% (20% chance of loss)
• Hockey has high variance (lucky goals)
• Small samples (1 game doesn't invalidate formula)

Action: Trust the process over 10+ starts, not single games

"Volume score seems off"

Possible issues:

• Small sample (opponent shot data variance)
• Recent team system change (defensive improvement)
• Injured forwards (opponent shots down)

Action: Manually verify opponent stats, adjust if needed

Real-World Example

Scenario: Weekend Goalie Streaming (Oct 17-19, 2025)

Your League: H2H, Wins + SA (positive) Your Matchup: Down 2-3 in Wins, even in SA

Query:

Analyze goalie streams for Oct 17-19, 2025.
My league: Wins (70%) + SA positive (30%).
I'm down 2-3 in Wins. Need to catch up.
Show top 3 adds available (<75% owned).

Tool Analysis:

Top 3 Recommendations:

1. Cam Talbot (LAK) - MUST-START

Stream Score: 81
Classification: Must-Start
Ownership: 64%

Game: LAK vs SJS (Home, Saturday)
Win Probability: 78%
Projected Shots: 31

Breakdown:
✓ Team Strength: 82 (LAK 5-2-0, strong form)
✓ Opponent Weakness: 88 (SJS worst offense, 2.1 GPG)
✓ Goalie Form: 76 (0.914 SV% last 5)
✓ Home Ice: 85 (home at Crypto.com)
✓ Rest: 90 (2 days rest)

Volume Analysis:
✓ SJS shoots 30.8/game (high volume)
✓ Historical: 32 SA average vs SJS
✓ Volume Score: 84

Risks: None significant
Starter Confidence: Confirmed

Add Priority: IMMEDIATE
Chirp: "Lock it in. 78% win probability at home vs the worst offense in the league. 31 shots for your SA category. Add before waivers Saturday."

2. Logan Thompson (WPG) - STRONG-START

Stream Score: 74
Classification: Strong-Start
Ownership: 58%

Game: WPG @ ANA (Away, Friday)
Win Probability: 72%
Projected Shots: 27

Breakdown:
✓ Team Strength: 78 (WPG 6-2-0, excellent)
~ Opponent Weakness: 71 (ANA weak but home ice)
✓ Goalie Form: 81 (0.919 SV% last 5)
✗ Home Ice: 48 (road game)
✓ Rest: 85 (1 day rest)

Volume Analysis:
~ ANA allows 28.2 shots/game (medium)
~ Historical: 29 SA vs ANA
~ Volume Score: 68

Risks: Road game (away disadvantage)
Starter Confidence: Likely (played 2 of last 3)

Add Priority: HIGH
Chirp: "Not a lock but solid. Road game hurts but Winnipeg is rolling and Anaheim is weak. 72% win probability is good enough when chasing."

3. Anton Forsberg (OTT) - RISKY-START

Stream Score: 61
Classification: Risky-Start
Ownership: 47%

Game: OTT vs MTL (Home, Sunday)
Win Probability: 64%
Projected Shots: 33

Breakdown:
~ Team Strength: 68 (OTT 4-4-0, mediocre)
~ Opponent Weakness: 75 (MTL struggling, 2.6 GPG)
~ Goalie Form: 62 (0.898 SV% last 5, inconsistent)
✓ Home Ice: 78 (home at Canadian Tire)
~ Rest: 65 (0 days rest, B2B risk)

Volume Analysis:
✓ MTL shoots 32.4/game (high volume)
✓ Historical: 34 SA vs MTL
✓ Volume Score: 82

Risks:
- Back-to-back (played Saturday)
- Inconsistent form (0.898 SV%)
- SV% risk if chasing volume

Starter Confidence: Confirmed (backup played Friday)

Add Priority: MEDIUM (only if desperate)
Chirp: "Coin flip. Back-to-back hurts, but home vs weak opponent and 33 shots for your SA. If you're chasing Wins badly, roll the dice. Otherwise, safer plays exist."

Recommendation:

Chasing Strategy (Down 2-3 in Wins):

Add Immediately:
1. Talbot vs SJS (Saturday) - 78% win prob, 31 shots
2. Thompson @ ANA (Friday) - 72% win prob, 27 shots

Expected Results:
- Wins: ~1.5 wins (78% + 72% = 150%)
- SA: ~58 shots
- Risk: Low-medium (both solid matchups)

Verdict: "Two strong starts give you ~1.5 expected Wins.
Should close your 2-3 gap. Add Talbot first (must-start),
then Thompson (strong). Skip Forsberg unless desperate on Sunday."

Chirp:

"🥅 You're down 2 Wins. Talbot vs San Jose is 78% free money. Thompson on the road is solid too at 72%. Add both, start both, close the gap. Don't overthink 75%+ win probability - these are locks."

Outcome:

• Manager adds Talbot + Thompson Friday
• Saturday: Talbot wins, 32 SA (2-1 victory)
• Friday: Thompson wins, 28 SA (4-2 victory)
• Gap closed: Now 4-3 Wins (was 2-3)
• SA boost: +60 shots total

Final: Manager wins Wins category 5-3, SA category extended lead. Week won.

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"Start with confidence or watch your opponent win Wins." - ICE, on goalie streaming

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